This paper tells the story of the Kabul Bank scandal and the crisis that followed it. The Karzai administration’s response to the crisis is described, particularly its efforts to protect the main individuals behind the scandal, or the Kabul Bank shareholders, from criminal prosecution.
For the US to significantly scale back its military operations in the south and east of Afghanistan –during a fierce insurgency- would be to cede those troubled territories to the Taliban. Is this really what President Karzai wants –to give half of the country or more to the Taliban?
After the recent interview of former Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf, it will be difficult to doubt that the Pakistani government is sponsoring militants to achieve its national security goals in Afghanistan.
There is more continuity between the Bush and Obama strategies in Afghanistan than most acknowledge. The biggest difference between the two is probably that Obama has adopted Afghanistan as his foreign policy centerpiece.
Richard Haass, the president of the Council on Foreign Relations, recently called for a US pullout from Afghanistan. While Haass’ analysis is incomplete, the US may be forced into tough decisions if Afghanistan does not turnaround.
The recent Taliban arrests and subsequent releases by the Pakistani government point not to chance or incompetence but to a well thought out foreign policy strategy that navigates through a raging storm of competing foreign policy interests.
The whiplash strategy that was intended to strengthen the Afghan government by pressuring Karzai to go after corruption has had the opposite effect. It has erased what remaining credibility Karzai possessed after last year’s election. Afghan consensus building may provide a better solution.
Taliban Supreme Leader Mullah Omar has indicated that neither he nor the Taliban aim to be involved in politics in the future. Before this can happen, however, the Taliban wants foreign troops out and the Afghan constitution “repaired”.
The January and February breakthroughs in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India have extended to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in March. The Obama administration believes correctly that South Asia’s major crises are linked. It also may think that the Iranian nuclear crisis is linked to the Israeli-Palestinian crisis.
At least six theories are being floated on Mullah Baradar’s capture and/or the flood of recent insurgency defeats. Understanding Pakistan’s Afghan Taliban policy is critical to separating fact from fiction.
